July 21, 2011
International Monetary Fund

Abstract:

This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors ("luck") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification....

June 13, 2011
Prism // Center for Complex Operations (National Defense University)

Abstract:

Transnational criminal organizations, networks, and terrorist groups are increasingly helping each other move products, money, weapons, personnel, and goods. They accomplish this through an informal network or series of overlapping pipelines. These pipelines can be best understood as recombinant chains with links that can couple and decouple as necessary to meet the interests of the networks involved. Many operate in “alternatively governed” spaces outside of direct state control or within criminal state enterprises. A criminal state counts on the integration of the state's leadership into the criminal enterprise and the use of public services—such as licensing, issuance of official documents, regulatory regimes, border control—for illicit purposes. A further variation of the criminal state occurs when a state franchises part of its territory to nonstate groups, with the protection of the central government or a regional power sharing the profits. The author shows that understanding and addressing these threats requires capacity-building in human intelligence collection and prosecuting transnational criminal organizations....

July 29, 2010
African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes // African Journal on Conflict Resolution

Abstract:

Ethnicity is a prominent feature in Nigeria’s socio-economic environment and is fervently exhibited within the context of the ‘indigene-settler dichotomy’. As this encourages exclusivism, it has been a major factor responsible for violent conflicts across the country. While many urban spaces in the country have witnessed such conflicts, a few have not. This study examines the indigene-settler inter-relations in Enugu to determine why and how the city sustained ethnic coexistence, cooperation and harmony since the end of the civil war (1967– 1970). It demonstrates how, while ethnic attachment appeared to be strong, and while conflicts and occasional tensions did occur in the city, inter-ethnic relationships were cordial and symbiotic. It further identifies and interrogates cogent factors responsible for this trend. The paper argues that the constructive management of ethnic conflicts, as demonstrated in the city, could be efficient and productive. Despite optimism in Enugu’s peaceful condition, however, it concludes that potential complications could emanate, as the factors responsible for Enugu’s condition are amenable to change. Both primary and secondary sources (eighty-six in-person interviews, twelve focus group discussions, archival and secondary materials) were used within a multi-disciplinary framework....

July 28, 2010
African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes // African Journal on Conflict Resolution

Abstract:

This paper sketches a conceptual framework of international conflict dynamics and resolution, examines the geopolitics of the Bakassi dispute between Nigeria and Cameroon, and outlines socio-economic implications of its peaceful settlement. Neglect and subsequent discovery of oil deposits subjected the Bakassi Peninsula to claims and counter-claims for sovereignty, military occupation and recourse to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The ICJ’s ruling in 2002 in favour of Cameroon, although based on sound historical evidence, faced implementation difficulties. However, following mediation by the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General, good faith by protagonists, the Green-tree Agreement and subsequent instruments, Nigeria completed the withdrawal of its military, police and administration from the Bakassi Peninsula by 14 August 2008. Putting aside disruptive activities by social movements, the entire process could be viewed as a model in peaceful resolution of border conflicts. Implications of the settlement anchor on expenditure-reducing and expenditure-switching effects, wealth-generating effects, and enhanced cross-border activities. Infrastructural developments and effective presence are considered essential elements in border management policies....

May 12, 2010
African Journal of Political Science and International Relations

Abstract:

Nigeria’s Niger Delta region is not only home to the greater part of Africa’s largest mangrove forest, but also the source of Nigeria’s oil wealth. Here, in this amazing network of creeks, and an aquatic splendor comprising marine, brackish and freshwater ecosystems, lie the operational bases of a kaleidoscope of ethnic militia and insurgent organizations dedicated to the socio-economic emancipation of the Niger Delta peoples. These have culminated in the Niger Delta Crisis. Thus, the area has become a hot bed of violence, insurgency, kidnapping, hostage-taking, oil pipeline sabotage, crude oil theft, gang wars, internecine struggles and so much else by way of anarchy and chaos. Making use of library research and content analysis methodologies, the paper detailed in a systematic manner the real issues involved in the struggle, from the perspectives of the Nigerian State, the Niger Delta communities, and the oil Companies. The paper identified and analysed the major challenges posed by this crisis to the Nigerian State. It concluded that in spite of the continuing deterioration of the crisis into anarchy, terror and a revolving criminality, and the militarization of the region by the Nigerian state, the conflict can still be amicably resolved. It recommended among other things that the commitment of government to infrastructural development of the region and corporate social responsibility would bring enduring peace and stability....

June 3, 2008
Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Abstract:

At a May 1, 2008 panel discussion, Ambassador John Campbell, former United States ambassador to Nigeria, Muhammad Sani Umar, associate professor of Islam at Arizona State University, and Howard University Professor Dr. Mobalaji E. Aluko discussed the current state of democracy in Nigeria following the turmoil of the April 2007 elections. Each panelist’s remarks touched a facet of the situation and conflict.

February 20, 2008
Public Broadcasting Service // Frontline World

Abstract:

In 2007, photographer Seamus Murphy traveled to Nigeria to explore religious tensions between Christians and Muslims in the country''s fertile "middle belt." In this audio slideshow, Murphy describes the dramatic images he captured in the region as the two groups searched for redemption and battled for souls.

February 24, 2006
Channel 4 News

Abstract:

More4 News reports on the dreadful internal violence affecting Nigeria. The last five days have seen 138 people killed in mob violence in both the mainly Christian south and the mainly Muslim north. At least 146 people have been killed in religious riots in Nigeria, over the last five days. The rioting comes as nine foreign oil workers are being held by militants. The hostages were kidnapped last week in the oil-producing Niger Delta in the predominantly Christian south - where Muslims have had their homes destroyed and their mosques torched. While in the Muslim north of the country, the minority Christian population has been targeted. Today, corpses of Muslims were burned on the streets of Onitsha, where at least eighty five people have been killed. Nima El Baghir reports....

January 4, 2011
International Crisis Group

Abstract:

Five actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and two improved in December 2010, according to the latest issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch released today. Côte d’Ivoire was gripped by political crisis as incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo refused to cede power after losing to rival Alassane Outtara in the late-November presidential runoff polls. Post-election violence claimed thTensions remained high on the Korean peninsula just one month after North Korea shelled Yŏnp’yŏng Island in South Korea. Pyongyang threatened “brutal consequences beyond imagination” against the South as Seoul held live-fire artillery drills on the island. Russia and China called for a calming of tensions on the peninsula, but South Korea refused to cancel the drills amid domestic pressure to stand firm against the North. Nigeria was hit by several deadly bomb attacks and ongoing Islamist militant violence over the month. At least 80 people were killed in coordinated explosions in the central city of Jos on 24 December. e lives of at least 170 people and more than 15,000 fled to neighbouring countries. In Pakistan, the Taliban launched a wave of suicide attacks during the month that left scores dead. Many of those killed were locals supporting efforts against the militants. The situation in Guinea improved as former Prime Minister Cellou Diallo conceded defeat in the November presidential runoff and Alpha Condé was sworn in as the country’s first democratically elected president. Following a tense election period and concerted international efforts to avert renewed conflict, world leaders commended Guinea for a “historic achievement”. Iraq ’s parliament unanimously approved a new 42-member government under incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on 21 December. The move ends nine months of political deadlock and protracted negotiations over government formation following parliamentary elections in March. CrisisWatch also notes a marked deterioration in Mexico’s drug-related violence over the course of the past year, despite the killing of several high-profile cartel leaders...

November 2, 2010
International Crisis Group

Abstract:

Three actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and none improved in October 2010, according to the latest issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch released today. Twin bomb blasts struck the Nigerian capital Abuja at the beginning of the month, killing at least a dozen people during celebrations of the country’s 50th anniversary of independence. A statement by the Niger Delta militant group MEND claiming responsibility for the blasts was later denied by former MEND leaders, although the group subsequently released a statement threatening a repeat of the attack. Meanwhile, tensions increased in Borno state as hundreds of troops were deployed in the state capital in response to a series of deadly attacks blamed on Islamic sect Boko Haram. Zimbabwe’s inclusive government looked increasingly unstable , threatening to fracture over differences on implementation of the 2008 Global Political Agreement and elections. The situation again deteriorated in Guinea, where CrisisWatch also identifies a conflict risk alert for November. October saw further political violence surrounding the second round of the presidential election between leading candidate Cellou Diallo and his rival Alpha Conde. Persistent tensions between the two camps following the controversial first round in June have been exacerbated by further delays to the run-off. The announcement on 22 October that the polls would be postponed for a third time sparked more clashes along ethnic lines between rival supporters....

April 19, 2007
Election Guide

Abstract:

Country: Nigeria; Official Name: Federal Republic of Nigeria; Election Type: Presidential; Date: April 21, 2007

April 19, 2007
Election Guide

Abstract:

Country: Nigeria; Official Name: Federal Republic of Nigeria; Election Type: Parliamentary; Date: April 21, 2007

March 22, 2007
Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract:

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, launched itself onto the international stage in January 2006 by claiming responsibility for the capture of four foreign oil workers. Since then, the group's attacks on oil pipelines and kidnappings have reduced oil output in the Niger Delta by roughly one-third. Oil companies, the Nigerian government, and the United States (Nigeria is the United States' fifth largest supplier of U.S. crude imports) are concerned about MEND's ability to disrupt the global oil supply. Though skilled at leveraging international media, the group remains secretive and opinions vary on its power and ability to sustain itself....

July 13, 2006
Project on International Courts and Tribunals // African International Courts and Tribunals

Abstract:

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS/CEDEAO) is well known for its military intervention in Liberia and Sierra Leone. ECOWAS was created in 1975 to replace the Customs Union of West African States originally created in 1959 to redistribute customs duties collected by the coastal states of West Africa. The Treaty on the Economic Community of West African States was revised at the Cotonou Summit of July 1993 to replace the inexistent Tribunal originally envisioned with a Community Court of Justice....

June 1, 2006
Energy Information Administration

Abstract:

Regional leaders created the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on May 28, 1975 in Lagos, Nigeria. ECOWAS is comprised of 15 countries, which include: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cote d'Ivoire , The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria , Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo. The leaders established ECOWAS to promote regional integration and economic growth in West Africa, as well as to create a monetary union in the region. However, ECOWAS has encountered problems in the process of regional integration including: political instability and lack of good governance that has plagued many member countries, the insufficient diversification of national economies, the absence of reliable infrastructure, and the multiplicity of organizations for regional integration with the same objectives....

March 11, 2010
United Nations World Food Programme // ReliefWeb

Abstract:

This map represents the areas reporting conflict in Nigeria and shows the population density in states affected by violent clashes, as of March 8th, 2010.

November 20, 2009
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre // ReliefWeb

Abstract:

This map represents internal displacement in Nigeria as of November 2009.

May 25, 2009
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs // ReliefWeb

Abstract:

This map represents the on-going violence in Nigeria as of May 22nd, 2009. Thousands have been displaced and at least 100 dead after government troops launched an offensive on militant groups in the Delta state of the country.

October 28, 2004
Le Monde Diplomatique

Abstract:

The river Niger delta, where the country's hydrocarbon deposits are concentrated, is in the hands of two big western companies, who exploit the oil on behalf of the government and distribute the proceeds. Conscious of having been dispossessed, the ethnic groups who inhabit the delta have been stepping up peaceful protest and armed resistance in support of their demands for more income for the local communities.

January 4, 2011
Foreign Policy Magazine // International Crisis Group

Abstract:

Across the globe today, you'll find almost three dozen raging conflicts, from the valleys of Afghanistan to the jungles of the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the streets of Kashmir. But what are the next crises that might erupt in 2011? Here are a few worrisome spots that make our list. [Captions provided by International Crisis Group]

May 19, 2010
The Brookings Institution

Abstract:

The death of Nigerian President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua did not come as a shock to most Nigerians due to his prolonged illness. During his inaugural speech, the new Nigerian president, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, affirmed his commitment to Yar’Adua’s legacy in the areas of transparent governance, electoral reform, peace and development of the Niger Delta, security of life and property around the country, and the fight against corruption. Since the return of democratic governance to Nigeria in May 1999, elected presidents have tended to live up to their promises. A comparison of the last two presidents’ inaugural speeches and their subsequent achievements not only support this but also provides a basis for confidence in the new president. Jonathan has learned important governing lessons from the various crises and challenges of democratic governance during his tenure as a deputy governor, then as governor of his home state before becoming vice president in May 2007. While these experiences are invaluable, it is also important that, as president, Jonathan seizes this opportunity to put Nigeria back on the path of rapid progress by devising fresh approaches to tackling the country’s growth and development problems....

June 9, 2009
All Africa Global Media // Vanguard News

Abstract:

The national economy may have lost $25,278,000 (N3.74 billion) per day in the last two weeks of May occasioned by the hostilities in Delta State between the Joint Task Force, (JTF) and militants. Already, discordant tunes are beginning to emerge from the camp of the main militants group in the region - Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta - with its deputy leader, 'General' Boyloaf declaring his intention and that of his followers to lay down their arms and accept the amnesty offered by the Federal Government. He spoke just 24 hours after MEND spokesman Jomo Gbomo, in an open letter to President Umaru Yar'Adua, said the amnesty amounted to nothing to the group. Gbomo dismissed the Godwin Abbe Panel Report on the amnesty issue as worthless. How economy loses N3.74 billion daily This amount works out at an average crude oil price of $66 per barrel for May. Before the commencement of the hostilities, the country's crude oil output averaged 1.763 million barrels per day in April. Sunday Vanguard investigation showed that the country's condensate output which is not included in OPEC calculations was in excess of 200,000 barrels per day in April. The N3.74 billion per day loss excludes the costs of military hardware, oil pipelines, houses, palace, farms and canoes / boats that have gone with the war. It also does not include the huge man hours and lives - soldiers, militants and innocent men and women that have been wasted. The JTF declared 18 soldiers including two officers missing in action, and confirmed 17 rifles lost. Besides, it lost some gunboats....

December 4, 2008
World Public Opinion.Org

Abstract:

A poll of seven majority Muslim nations finds people conflicted about the United Nations. On one hand there is widespread support for a more active UN with much broader powers than it has today. On the other hand, there is a perception that the UN is dominated by the US and there is dissatisfaction with UN performance on several fronts, particularly in dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These are the findings from a WorldPublicOpinion.org survey in Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, Iran, Indonesia, the Palestinian Territories, and Azerbaijan. Muslims in Nigeria (50% of the general population) were also polled. The survey was conducted in two waves in 2008. Overall, 6,175 respondents were interviewed in the first wave and 5,363 in the second; a total of 11,538 respondents participated in the study. The first wave was conducted January 12-February 18, 2008 though in two nations it was completed in late 2006. The second wave for all nations was completed July 21-August 31, 2008.Margins of error range from +/-2 to 5 percent. Not all questions were asked in all countries....

September 12, 2008
WorldPublicOpinion.org

Abstract:

A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 17 nations finds that majorities in only nine of them believe that al Qaeda was behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States. In no country does a majority agree on another possible perpetrator, but in most countries significant minorities cite the US government itself and, in a few countries, Israel. These responses were given spontaneously to an open-ended question that did not offer response options. On average, 46 percent say that al Qaeda was behind the attacks while 15 percent say the US government, seven percent Israel, and seven percent some other perpetrator. One in four say they do not know. WPO_911_Sep08_graph.jpgGiven the extraordinary impact the 9/11 attacks have had on world affairs, it is remarkable that seven years later there is no international consensus about who was behind them," comments Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org....

October 22, 2004


Abstract:

Website of the Africa Union.

January 29, 2007
Public Broadcasting Service

Abstract:

Despite ethnic and religious divisions, Nigeria has worked to build a viable democracy after more than a decade of often-brutal military rule. Confronting the key elements on the road to democracy -- political leadership, economic stability and religious tolerance -- has forced the country to face age-old conflicts within its diverse society, and raised to question of how to strengthen its standing as a regional power.

June 14, 2007
Centre for Democracy and Development

Abstract:

The project is a three-year one designed to contribute to the operationalisation of the African Security Sector Network activities, but with particular consideration for the specific context of the West African sub-region. Funded by the UK Department of International Development (DFID), the specific activities of the project include security sector reform in Liberia through king's College London (KCL) in collaboration with other organizations such as the Governance Reform Commission (GRC) in Liberia, the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) in Nigeria and the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF, Africa Security Dialogue Research (ASDR) in Ghana; establishment of Kofi Annan Centre for Conflict Transformation at the University of Liberia; research on Youth and Vulnerability in Africa with Liberia and Nigeria as the focus and capacity-building and advocacy workshops by CDD in collaboration with the West African Civil Society Forum (WACSOF)....

December 6, 2006
Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation

Abstract:

The Oil for Development initiative aims at assisting developing countries with petroleum resources (or potential) in their efforts to manage these resources in a way that generates economic growth and promotes the welfare of the population in general, and in a way that is environmentally sustainable.

October 20, 2006
Will H. Moore

Abstract:

The Violent Intranational Conflict Data Project (VICDP) was created by Will H. Moore in 1992 to produce events data for the study of violent intranational conflict. The project produced data for five cases: Colombia, Nigeria, Peru, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, covering the years 1955-1991. In addition, some data were collected for both Lebanon and the Phillipines.

August 11, 2011
The Middle East Institute

Abstract:

This Policy Brief examines the real and imagined influence of al-Qa‘ida in North Africa and the Sahel. Despite a perception of the transnationalization of terrorist movements in North Africa under al-Qa‘ida’s banner, robust evidence of an effective al-Qa‘ida’s expansion in the Maghreb and the Sahara/Sahel region remains elusive at best. Rather, doubts about al-Qa‘ida’s actual threat and the efficacy of international response in the context of pervasive state failure in the Sahel raise questions regarding the policy objectives of US-led counter-terrorism in the region....

July 8, 2011
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

This report provides an overview of the CSIS study series examining the risks of instability in 10 African countries over the next decade. The 10 papers are designed to be complementary but can also be read individually as self-standing country studies. The overview draws on common themes and explains the methodology underpinning the research. The project was commissioned by the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). The papers in this series are not meant to offer hard and fast predictions about the future. While they sketch out some potential scenarios for the next 10 years, these efforts should be treated as thought experiments that look at how different dynamics might converge to create the conditions for instability. The intention is not to single out countries believed to be at risk of impending disaster and make judgments about how they will collapse. Few, if any, of the countries in this series are at imminent risk of breakdown. All of them have coping mechanisms that militate against conflict, and discussions of potential “worst-case scenarios” have to be viewed with this qualification in mind....

July 8, 2011
Chatham House

Abstract:

I consider it a singular honour to have been invited today by Chatham House to address this august forum. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which I represent, is a regional organisation which has, over the years, gained your attention only for the unfortunate reasons of state implosion and instability caused by bad governance and marginalisation. I therefore welcome the opportunity to throw further light on its objectives, challenges, and achievements, which factors have effectively brought together fifteen West African states in the enterprise of improving upon the living standards of 230 million people as well as integrating them.

The term ‘Chatham House Rule’ is today an internationally-accepted cliché that this Institute has contributed to international diplomacy discourse, a reference norm in rigorous and policy-oriented exchanges on global peace and security. I therefore view your invitation to lead today’s discourse about ‘Democracy in the context of Regional Integration in West Africa’ as an unique honour for me personally, and a recognition of ECOWAS as a leading brand in regional integration.

Ladies and gentlemen, the evolution of ECOWAS can only be properly understood against the backdrop of the fascinating history and circumstances of West Africa since establishing contact with the world beyond its borders. The fact that slavery, colonialism, as well as racial and economic marginalisation, had left an intrinsic yearning for freedom, unity and solidarity among peoples of African descent everywhere defines its wish to integrate its states and peoples....

June 29, 2011
Africa Center for Strategic Studies

Abstract:

Nigeria’s long-running “indigene-settler” conflict in and around Jos, Plateau State has escalated in recent years and may spread to other ethnically mixed regions of the country, heightening instability. Navigating such inter-communal fault lines is a common challenge for many African societies that requires looking past symptoms to address systemic drivers. In Nigeria, this will entail measures that directly mitigate violence as well as realize constitutional reform.

June 13, 2011
United States Institute of Peace

Abstract:

Climate change, a growing number of voices in media and policy circles warn, is raising the risks of violent conflict in the twenty-first century. Dire futures are predicted for some of the world’s poorest, least prepared countries and their most vulnerable citizens. This report, sponsored by the Centers of Innovation at the U.S. Institute of Peace, evaluates these claims for conflict-prone Nigeria. Based on a comprehensive literature survey, interviews with senior government officials, academics, and private sector figures, and the author’s work as a conflict analyst in Nigeria, the report calls for a more nuanced approach to mapping the links between climate change and conflict. It reviews evidence of such links in Nigeria and outlines a process for achieving conflict-sensitive adaptation to the effects of climate change....