March 3, 2011
Foreign Policy Centre
Abstract:
Spotlight on Armenia examines a country that has had to grapple with huge economic, political and
security challenges in the two decades since independence. While recognising progress in some areas it
argues that the pace of reform has been slow, much better on paper than in practice, and that this is
undermining the hopes and aspirations of the Armenian people. It has identified three key areas: judicial
independence, media freedom and democratic development that are most in need of urgent reform but
the editor and authors have addressed a range of other challenges. The publication argues it is essential
for the international community to provide adequate incentives, pressure and monitoring to ensure that
the progress of reform is hastened. To this end it makes a number of recommendations for Armenia and
its international partners....
February 8, 2011
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
An arms race, escalating front-line clashes, vitriolic war
rhetoric and a virtual breakdown in peace talks are increasing
the chance Armenia and Azerbaijan will go back
to war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Preventing this is urgent.
Increased military capabilities on both sides would make
a new armed conflict in the South Caucasus far more
deadly than the 1992-1994 one that ended with a shaky
truce. Neither side would be likely to win easily or quickly.
Regional alliances could pull in Russia, Turkey and Iran.
Vital oil and gas pipelines near the front lines would be
threatened, as would the cooperation between Russia and
Turkey that is central to regional stability. Another refugee
crisis would be likely. To start reversing this dangerous
downward trend, the opposing sides should sign a
document on basic principles for resolving the conflict
peacefully and undertake confidence-building steps to
reduce tensions and avert a resumption of fighting.
There has been significant deterioration over the past year.
Neither government is planning an all-out offensive in the
near term, but skirmishes that already kill 30 people a
year could easily spiral out of control. It is unclear if the
leaders in Yerevan and Baku thoroughly calculate the potential
consequences of a new round of tit-for-tat attacks.
Ambiguity and lack of transparency about operations
along the line of contact, arms deals and other military
expenditures and even the state of the peace talks all contribute
to a precarious situation. Monitoring mechanisms
should be strengthened and confidence-building steps
implemented to decrease the chance of an accidental war....
January 13, 2011
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre // Norwegian Refugee Council
Abstract:
Over 586,000 people remain internally displaced in Azerbaijan after the Nagorno-Karabakh war
ended with a ceasefire in 1994. The figure includes approximately 230,000 children born to internally
displaced people (IDPs) since they fled their homes. Insecurity near the line of contact with
Armenia continues to disrupt the livelihoods of IDPs and others who live nearby.
IDPs’ main concern, however, is their inadequate living conditions. Many still live in dilapidated
public buildings and makeshift accommodation, some with poor security of tenure. The government
has resettled some IDPs into new, purpose-built settlements, but while these offer better
conditions, they are often far from neighbouring towns and offer insufficient access to services,
jobs or livelihoods. Most IDPs have yet to benefit from this scheme and there is increasing disparity
in the living conditions of IDPs.
IDPs are more often unemployed than their non-displaced neighbours and the majority continue
to depend on government benefits as their main source of income. Limited finances prevent
some from accessing health care services and education despite provisions ensuring their free
access. IDPs continue to suffer mental health issues relating to their displacement and experiences
during the war, and there is a lack of appropriate and affordable support. Specific and expanded
measures are required to improve their self-reliance and decrease the pattern of dependency.
Return remains the preferred settlement option for many IDPs and for the government. Some
younger IDPs, however, say they would prefer to stay in their current places of residence even if
return were a viable option. While the government has allocated significant attention and resources
to improving the lives of IDPs, a better national response would entail efforts to engage
IDPs on issues that affect them and to amend regulations and practices that prevent IDPs from
enjoying a normal life at their current residence....
October 13, 2010
International Relations and Security Network
Abstract:
This issue of the Caucasus Analytical Digest examines the importance of religion in the South Caucasus. First, Robia Charles examines the nature of religiosity in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Second, Harutyun Harutyunyan analyzes the role of the Armenian church during military conflicts, arguing that the Armenian church legitimized the use of violence, especially during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (1988–1994). Third, Kimitaka Matsuzato assesses the strategies for survival of the Orthodox communities in Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. Finally, Ruslan Baramidze examines the differences among Muslim communities in highland and lowland areas of the Autonomous Republic of Adjara....
April 30, 2010
Bertelsmann Foundation // Commission on the Black Sea
Abstract:
Black Sea region countries have diverse political systems, ranging from developed democracies
to authoritarian regimes. Communist pasts and a lack of democratic experience have stalled or
reversed democratisation processes in many cases. Flawed legal systems and a public distrust
in institutions have been paired with growing executive power in many countries. Increasing
inequality and unresolved conflicts undermine pro-democratic reforms as well. The region’s West and South, including Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Turkey, contain relatively
stable democracies. Reforms in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova have met with only limited
success, hampered by conflicts with neighbours or separatist regions. Russia has shown substantial
re-centralisation of power with authoritarian traits. The Ukraine’s post-Orange Revolution momentum
has been lost, but democratic procedures and the culture of an open society have taken root. Elections in Greece, Turkey, Romania and the Ukraine are generally free and fair, but show serious
flaws elsewhere in the region. Outside of Greece, political parties are weak. Parliaments in the West
and South hold some power, but often show functional weaknesses, while elsewhere executives –
often with authoritarian leanings – are little restrained by legislatures or opposition parties. With
the exception of Turkey and Greece, judicial corruption or lack of independence is common. Bribery and corruption is a problem across the region. In the post-communist states, this has
undermined state legitimacy. Increasing inequality is a pressing problem throughout, also
threatening regime credibility. The economic crisis may further undermine the attraction of
Western democratic values, contributing to poverty and social unrest. Civil society is hampered by a lack of democratic tradition. Outside of Turkey and Greece, domestic
NGOs are scarce or face substantial state resistance. Ethnic minority issues and a persistent brain
drain remain problematic, but a new technocratic generation offers the promise of change.
The EU has made numerous bilateral and multilateral overtures to Black Sea countries, but has
not shown a clear regional policy. It risks appearing to prioritise a stable energy supply over
true transformation. US interest has been focused on democratisation as well as regional energy
security.
In seeking to enhance democratic transformation, civil society groups should be given broad
practical support. Aid to states should be linked to democratic reforms, and combined with
substantial assistance for institutional and administrative capacity building. Judicial reforms and a
stronger rule of law will be critical in stabilising the region’s political and economic systems. The
EU in particular needs to develop a coherent regional policy, which must include cooperation with
Russia and Turkey....
Armenia 
