July 29, 2011
The United Nations Monitoring Group

Abstract:

It would be hard to conceive of two States that offer greater contrasts than Somalia and Eritrea: the former, a collapsed State for over two decades, with no functional national institutions; the latter, possessing the most highly centralized, militarized and authoritarian system of government on the African continent. From a sanctions monitoring perspective, however, the two countries present very similar challenges: in both cases, power is concentrated in the hands of individuals rather than institutions and is exercised through largely informal and often illicit networks of political and financial control. Leaders in both countries often depend more heavily on political and economic support from foreign Governments and diaspora networks than from the populations within their own borders. And both countries — in very different ways — serve as platforms for foreign armed groups that represent a grave and increasingly urgent threat to peace and security in the Horn and East Africa region.

More than half of Somali territory is controlled by responsible, comparatively stable authorities that have demonstrated, to varying degrees, their capacity to provide relative peace and security to their populations. Without exception, the administrations of Somaliland, Puntland, Gaalmudug, and “Himan iyo Heeb” evolved independently of centralized State-building initiatives, from painstaking, organic local political processes. Much of Galguduud region is controlled by anti-Al- Shabaab clan militias loosely unified under the umbrella of Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a (ASWJ), but lacks a functional authority. Consolidation of and cooperation between such entities represents the single most effective strategy for countering threats like extremism and piracy, while expanding peace and security in Somalia....

July 28, 2011
The World Bank

Abstract:

The recent political upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa region have exposed growing concerns about conflict risk, political stability, and reform prospects across its societies. Given the prevalence of oil and gas resource endowments in the region, which a voluminous literature suggests can be associated with adverse development consequences, this paper examines the interplay between their associated rents and political economy trajectories. The contribution of the paper is threefold: first, to examine the quantitative evidence of violent conflict in the region since 1960; second, to provide a nuanced review of the regional case study literature on the relationship between resource endowments, political stability, and conflict risk; and third, to assess how prospective political transitions have implications for the World Bank Group's work in the region on public sector management and private sector development. The authors find that resources and regimes have intersected to provide stability and limited violent conflict in the region, but that these development patterns have yielded a set of policy choices and development patterns that are proving increasingly brittle and unsustainable. A major institutional challenge for reforms will be to consolidate a requisite degree of inter-temporal credibility and stability in these regimes, while expanding inclusiveness in state-society relations....

July 21, 2011
International Monetary Fund

Abstract:

This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors ("luck") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification....

May 18, 2011
Nordic Africa Institute // Nordiska Afrikainstitutet

Abstract:

This Policy Note focuses on the gendered consequences of the militarisation of the Horn of Africa. Despite being in different ‘moments’ of conflict, the countries of this region share features of extreme social, economic and political violence, which impact negatively on their citizens. Protracted refugee and refugee-like conditions, extreme disinvestment in social programmes, increasing militarisation and political repression adversely affect women, thereby further entrenching gender disparities. Concerted national and international efforts and resources should support local democratic initiatives to find political solutions to these protracted conflicts and advance the struggle against sexual and gender-based violence and discrimination....

April 13, 2011
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

National security is normally seen in terms of military strength and internal security operations against extremists and insurgents. The upheavals that began in Tunis, and now play out from Pakistan to Morocco,. have highlighted the fact that national security is measured in terms of the politics, economics, and social tensions that shape national stability as well. It is all too clear that the wrong kind of internal security efforts, and national security spending that limits the ability to meet popular needs and expectations can do as much to undermine national security over time as outside and extremist threats.

It is equally clear that calls for democracy are at best only the prelude to dealing with critical underlying problems, pressures, and expectations. It is far from certain that even successful regime change can evolve into functional democracies and governance. Countries with no political parties and experienced leaders, with no history of checks and balances in government, with weak structure of governance led by new political figures with no administrative experience, will often descend into chaos, extremism, or a new round of authoritarianism. Even the best governments, however, are unlikely to change an economy and national infrastructure in less than half a decade, and existing demographic pressures will inevitably go on for at least the next decade....

August 11, 2011
The Middle East Institute

Abstract:

This Policy Brief examines the real and imagined influence of al-Qa‘ida in North Africa and the Sahel. Despite a perception of the transnationalization of terrorist movements in North Africa under al-Qa‘ida’s banner, robust evidence of an effective al-Qa‘ida’s expansion in the Maghreb and the Sahara/Sahel region remains elusive at best. Rather, doubts about al-Qa‘ida’s actual threat and the efficacy of international response in the context of pervasive state failure in the Sahel raise questions regarding the policy objectives of US-led counter-terrorism in the region....

July 29, 2011
The United Nations Monitoring Group

Abstract:

It would be hard to conceive of two States that offer greater contrasts than Somalia and Eritrea: the former, a collapsed State for over two decades, with no functional national institutions; the latter, possessing the most highly centralized, militarized and authoritarian system of government on the African continent. From a sanctions monitoring perspective, however, the two countries present very similar challenges: in both cases, power is concentrated in the hands of individuals rather than institutions and is exercised through largely informal and often illicit networks of political and financial control. Leaders in both countries often depend more heavily on political and economic support from foreign Governments and diaspora networks than from the populations within their own borders. And both countries — in very different ways — serve as platforms for foreign armed groups that represent a grave and increasingly urgent threat to peace and security in the Horn and East Africa region.

More than half of Somali territory is controlled by responsible, comparatively stable authorities that have demonstrated, to varying degrees, their capacity to provide relative peace and security to their populations. Without exception, the administrations of Somaliland, Puntland, Gaalmudug, and “Himan iyo Heeb” evolved independently of centralized State-building initiatives, from painstaking, organic local political processes. Much of Galguduud region is controlled by anti-Al- Shabaab clan militias loosely unified under the umbrella of Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a (ASWJ), but lacks a functional authority. Consolidation of and cooperation between such entities represents the single most effective strategy for countering threats like extremism and piracy, while expanding peace and security in Somalia....

May 18, 2011
Nordic Africa Institute // Nordiska Afrikainstitutet

Abstract:

This Policy Note focuses on the gendered consequences of the militarisation of the Horn of Africa. Despite being in different ‘moments’ of conflict, the countries of this region share features of extreme social, economic and political violence, which impact negatively on their citizens. Protracted refugee and refugee-like conditions, extreme disinvestment in social programmes, increasing militarisation and political repression adversely affect women, thereby further entrenching gender disparities. Concerted national and international efforts and resources should support local democratic initiatives to find political solutions to these protracted conflicts and advance the struggle against sexual and gender-based violence and discrimination....

March 28, 2011
Nordic Africa Institute // Nordiska Afrikainstitutet

Abstract:

Somalia has engendered the policy debate on the extent of the spread of transnational Islamist Jihadist groups in the Horn of Africa (HOA) and their consequences for peace and security across the region. These concerns are justified given the emergence since the late 1980s of extremist groups such as the Eritrean Islamic Jihad Movement and the Somali Jihadist Islamist groups of the likes of Al-Ittihad, the Islamic Courts Union and currently Al Shabab. The leaders and fighters of these groups relocated to the HOA after the defeat of the Taliban following the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan. The operations of these transnational Islamist groups within and across the countries of the Horn pose serious challenges to the region and beyond....

March 21, 2011
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

Abstract:

This paper analyses Israel's response to a recent influx of African asylum seekers, a phenomenon whose nature and scale are unprecedented in Israel's history. It addresses three intertwined questions. What are the discursive challenges to the construction of an Israeli refugee regime? What dynamics foster their development? And how can those challenges be explained and deconstructed?

The paper consists of two parts. The first provides a historical overview that aims to situate the influx within a regional geo-political context. The second suggests a threefold evaluative typology of discourses; security, ethnonationalism and the gravity of the holocaust – societal pillars which critically influence both the state and the asylum seekers.

By critically presenting the evolution of Israel's responses to the influx, it argues that a pattern of 'ordered disorder' governs a spectrum of rejectionist responses, underpinned by the fundamental role of the 'asylum-migration nexus'. The ordered disorder also explains the degree of accommodating measures, provided by all actors. The disordered relationship between the nation-state and the asylum seekers becomes the Israeli "national order of things" (Malkki 1995a)....

August 15, 2011
Human Rights Watch

Abstract:

This report documents numerous abuses during renewed fighting in the past year by parties to the 20-year-long conflict in Somalia. These include the Islamist armed group al-Shabaab, the Somali Transitional Federal Government, the African Union peacekeeping forces, and Kenya- and Ethiopia-backed Somali militias. The report also examines abuses by the Kenyan police and crimes committed by bandits in neighboring Kenya against Somali refugees.

August 11, 2011
The Middle East Institute

Abstract:

This Policy Brief examines the real and imagined influence of al-Qa‘ida in North Africa and the Sahel. Despite a perception of the transnationalization of terrorist movements in North Africa under al-Qa‘ida’s banner, robust evidence of an effective al-Qa‘ida’s expansion in the Maghreb and the Sahara/Sahel region remains elusive at best. Rather, doubts about al-Qa‘ida’s actual threat and the efficacy of international response in the context of pervasive state failure in the Sahel raise questions regarding the policy objectives of US-led counter-terrorism in the region....

July 29, 2011
The United Nations Monitoring Group

Abstract:

It would be hard to conceive of two States that offer greater contrasts than Somalia and Eritrea: the former, a collapsed State for over two decades, with no functional national institutions; the latter, possessing the most highly centralized, militarized and authoritarian system of government on the African continent. From a sanctions monitoring perspective, however, the two countries present very similar challenges: in both cases, power is concentrated in the hands of individuals rather than institutions and is exercised through largely informal and often illicit networks of political and financial control. Leaders in both countries often depend more heavily on political and economic support from foreign Governments and diaspora networks than from the populations within their own borders. And both countries — in very different ways — serve as platforms for foreign armed groups that represent a grave and increasingly urgent threat to peace and security in the Horn and East Africa region.

More than half of Somali territory is controlled by responsible, comparatively stable authorities that have demonstrated, to varying degrees, their capacity to provide relative peace and security to their populations. Without exception, the administrations of Somaliland, Puntland, Gaalmudug, and “Himan iyo Heeb” evolved independently of centralized State-building initiatives, from painstaking, organic local political processes. Much of Galguduud region is controlled by anti-Al- Shabaab clan militias loosely unified under the umbrella of Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a (ASWJ), but lacks a functional authority. Consolidation of and cooperation between such entities represents the single most effective strategy for countering threats like extremism and piracy, while expanding peace and security in Somalia....

July 20, 2011
Oxfam

Abstract:

East Africa is facing the worst food crisis of the 21st Century. Across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya, 12 million people are in dire need of food, clean water, and basic sanitation. Loss of life on a massive scale is a very real risk, and the crisis is set to worsen over the coming months, particularly for pastoralist communities.

The overall international donor response to this humanitarian crisis has been slow and inadequate. According to UN figures, $1bn is required to meet immediate needs. So far donors have committed less than $200m, leaving an $800m black hole.

While severe drought has undoubtedly led to the huge scale of the disaster, this crisis has been caused by people and policies, as much as by weather patterns. If more action had been taken earlier it could have helped mitigate the severity of the current crisis. It is no coincidence that the worst affected areas are those suffering from entrenched poverty due to marginalisation and lack of investment.

A rapid increase in emergency aid is needed right now to save lives and protect livelihoods, so that people can rebuild once the crisis is over. National governments and donors must prioritise addressing the issues that make people vulnerable in the first place. There’s no time to waste. We must not stand by and watch this tragedy unfold....

July 8, 2011
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract:

This report provides an overview of the CSIS study series examining the risks of instability in 10 African countries over the next decade. The 10 papers are designed to be complementary but can also be read individually as self-standing country studies. The overview draws on common themes and explains the methodology underpinning the research. The project was commissioned by the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). The papers in this series are not meant to offer hard and fast predictions about the future. While they sketch out some potential scenarios for the next 10 years, these efforts should be treated as thought experiments that look at how different dynamics might converge to create the conditions for instability. The intention is not to single out countries believed to be at risk of impending disaster and make judgments about how they will collapse. Few, if any, of the countries in this series are at imminent risk of breakdown. All of them have coping mechanisms that militate against conflict, and discussions of potential “worst-case scenarios” have to be viewed with this qualification in mind....

August 15, 2011
Human Rights Watch

Abstract:

This report documents numerous abuses during renewed fighting in the past year by parties to the 20-year-long conflict in Somalia. These include the Islamist armed group al-Shabaab, the Somali Transitional Federal Government, the African Union peacekeeping forces, and Kenya- and Ethiopia-backed Somali militias. The report also examines abuses by the Kenyan police and crimes committed by bandits in neighboring Kenya against Somali refugees.

August 8, 2011
Save the Children

Abstract:

Conflict continues to pose one of the biggest threats to the survival, development and well being of a significant number of children across the world. In the past decade, 2 million children have died directly as a result of conflict and 6 million have been permanently disabled or seriously injured. Explosive weapons were responsible for the death and injury of thousands of children in a number of conflicts in 2009, including Operation Cast Lead in Gaza, the final stage of the war in northern Sri Lanka, and the intensification of conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen. In these latter four countries, as well as in the occupied Palestinian territory and Iraq, the use of explosive weapons continued through 2010. Children were often the victims in these conflicts, with too little attention paid to minimising the risk to them or to ensuring that their fundamental human rights, such as the right to life,were not violated.

As well as governments’ use of explosive weapons in populated areas, recent decades have seen a rising number of non state actors using more sophisticated explosive weapons. For instance, information leaked from Afghanistan indicates that the Taliban has used shoulder launched surface to air missiles, which are more technologically advanced than the rocket propelled grenades they frequently use. Improvised explosive devices have also become more sophisticated and more deadly over the past two decades.

Section 1 of this report describes the impact of explosive weapons on children and their communities. Section 2 outlines the international human rights and legal framework that could and should be implemented to protect children. In Section 3, Save the Children proposes three steps towards minimising the impact of explosive weapons on children and makes recommendations to the international community, governments and non-governmental organisations....

August 8, 2011
IKV Pax Christi

Abstract:

IKV Pax Christi strives to enhance the protection of civilians in conflict. In the report, IKV Pax Christi expresses her concern about the use of explosive weapons in populated areas.

From relatively simple improvised explosive devices to advanced aircraft-delivered bombs and missiles, all explosive weapons share certain characteristics that make their use in populated areas especially dangerous for civilian populations. By projecting a blast wave and shrapnel, explosive weapons indiscriminately damage the area around the point of detonation, making no distinction between soldiers or civilians. Furthermore, explosive weapons can also destroy critical infrastructure and frequently pose a long-term risk to populations in the form of unexploded ordnance. For these and other reasons, the use of explosive weapons in populated areas urgently needs to be addressed.

The report provides an overview of recent debates on the use of these weapons, existing agreements in International Humanitarian Law, and the consequences of the use of these weapons for civilians when used in populated areas....

August 4, 2011
Global Humanitarian Assistance

Abstract:

The main aim of emergency response funds - ERFs - is to provide rapid and flexible funding to in-country actors to address unforeseen humanitarian needs.There are currently 14 stand-alone ERFs in operation.

This report provides information and data on these ERFs, including donors to the funds, implementing agencies and sector analysis. The document also provides brief case studies of the use of the funds in Kenya and Somalia.

August 2, 2011
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

Abstract:

2011 has witnessed an unprecedented arrival of IDPs into Mogadishu due to drought related reasons. While the largest influx of IDPs occurred in January 2011, trends indicate that since March, the rate of influx has been steadily increasing. Based on IASC Population Movement Tracking (PMT) data, this analysis aims to identify the key areas receiving IDPs in Mogadishu as well as the source of displacement this year.