August 15, 2011
RAND Corporation

Abstract:

This primer on subnational government in Afghanistan is meant to inform efforts to strengthen local government in recently cleared areas. Among the problems afflicting the Afghan state are the lack of effective service provision and representation, which together should constitute the base of the state's legitimacy. This paper identifies the various entities of local government and identifies opportunities for improvement. It is based on a review of the available academic and nongovernmental studies of subnational government in Afghanistan and interviews with civilian experts, including consultants attached to U.S. and allied government agencies. Opportunities to make the system more participatory and representative should be sought at lower levels to compensate for weak central institutions, and the court system must be strengthened where possible. Good intelligence about local politics must precede engagement. Governance metrics should gauge subjective perceptions of the legitimacy of the Afghan state, rather than objective outputs....

August 9, 2011
United States Institute of Peace

Abstract:

There are numerous sources of local conflict in Afghanistan today, but the majority cluster around a few issues: disputes over land and water rights; family disputes, particularly inheritance; and disputes over control of local positions of authority.

Lack of capacity or resources in the formal justice systems has been blamed for the lack of effective dispute resolution. But the fact that disputes were resolved more regularly in Afghanistan before the war years, when the formal justice system had even fewer resources, indicates that other causes are involved.

Lack of political and personal security of dispute-resolution practitioners and the increased power of local commanders, whose authority is not community-based, have undermined the traditional dispute-resolution system. At the same time, corruption and inefficiency have delegitimized the formal justice system in the eyes of many disputants.

Afghans and foreign donors alike note that Afghanistan has both state (court-based) and • nonstate (based upon a combination of customary and religious law) justice sectors, and it is often assumed that these systems solely compete with each other for dispute-resolution authority.

USIP research shows that, contrary to assumptions, successfully resolved disputes rely on • a combination of formal and informal actors. Indeed, it is common for disputes to move between formal and informal venues and to be considered by a series of local elders and, more rarely, government officials....

August 8, 2011
Save the Children

Abstract:

Conflict continues to pose one of the biggest threats to the survival, development and well being of a significant number of children across the world. In the past decade, 2 million children have died directly as a result of conflict and 6 million have been permanently disabled or seriously injured. Explosive weapons were responsible for the death and injury of thousands of children in a number of conflicts in 2009, including Operation Cast Lead in Gaza, the final stage of the war in northern Sri Lanka, and the intensification of conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen. In these latter four countries, as well as in the occupied Palestinian territory and Iraq, the use of explosive weapons continued through 2010. Children were often the victims in these conflicts, with too little attention paid to minimising the risk to them or to ensuring that their fundamental human rights, such as the right to life,were not violated.

As well as governments’ use of explosive weapons in populated areas, recent decades have seen a rising number of non state actors using more sophisticated explosive weapons. For instance, information leaked from Afghanistan indicates that the Taliban has used shoulder launched surface to air missiles, which are more technologically advanced than the rocket propelled grenades they frequently use. Improvised explosive devices have also become more sophisticated and more deadly over the past two decades.

Section 1 of this report describes the impact of explosive weapons on children and their communities. Section 2 outlines the international human rights and legal framework that could and should be implemented to protect children. In Section 3, Save the Children proposes three steps towards minimising the impact of explosive weapons on children and makes recommendations to the international community, governments and non-governmental organisations....

August 8, 2011
IKV Pax Christi

Abstract:

IKV Pax Christi strives to enhance the protection of civilians in conflict. In the report, IKV Pax Christi expresses her concern about the use of explosive weapons in populated areas.

From relatively simple improvised explosive devices to advanced aircraft-delivered bombs and missiles, all explosive weapons share certain characteristics that make their use in populated areas especially dangerous for civilian populations. By projecting a blast wave and shrapnel, explosive weapons indiscriminately damage the area around the point of detonation, making no distinction between soldiers or civilians. Furthermore, explosive weapons can also destroy critical infrastructure and frequently pose a long-term risk to populations in the form of unexploded ordnance. For these and other reasons, the use of explosive weapons in populated areas urgently needs to be addressed.

The report provides an overview of recent debates on the use of these weapons, existing agreements in International Humanitarian Law, and the consequences of the use of these weapons for civilians when used in populated areas....

August 5, 2011
Japan International Cooperation Agency Research Institute

Abstract:

After the 1991 Paris Peace Agreement, Cambodia set about the difficult process of state-building. Despite violent clashes in 1997-98, the Cambodian government has been largely successful in establishing full control of military forces, into which former Khmer Rouge soldiers have been reintegrated. The Cambodian government, with support of donors, successfully improved infrastructure throughout the country, built up capacity in key state institutions, and provided basic public services to the people. Behind these achievements was assistance from a grassroots network built by the Cambodian People‟s Party in the 1980s. This network is characterized by patronage connections between the government and village chiefs, and between the latter and villagers. Consequently, the legitimacy of the state has been strengthened. In contrast, social empowerment has been delayed, and people's political rights and freedoms have been restricted by the state. As shown by the recent increase of corruption charges and land tenure disputes, the imbalance between the powerful state and a stunted civil society is a potential factor of instability....

June 14, 2011
The Heritage Foundation

Abstract:

Last month, Kazakhstan’s Parliament approved the sending of troops to Afghanistan. The Taliban immediately issued a threat, warning Kazakhstan that its willingness to participate in the war on terrorism would make the country a target for violence. Days later, Kazakh security services’ headquarters in the northwestern city of Aktobe and the capital city of Astana were attacked by suicide bombers.

These incidents are new to Kazakhstan, a country that prides itself on a peaceful society enriched by ethnic diversity. While terrorist threats are typically associated with other Central Asian countries, these recent events in Kazakhstan are cause for concern. Further attacks could jeopardize vital transit facilities and massive energy projects.

As the United States and NATO battle al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, radical Islamic organizations are expanding north through the porous borders of Central Asia. The U.S. and NATO must pay closer attention to the spread of international terrorism and the negative implications for U.S. and Central Asian security.

...

April 20, 2011
Strategic Studies Institute // United States Army War College

Abstract:

The war in Afghanistan has added considerably to the strategic significance of Central Asia due to its proximity to the conflict. Moreover, the continuation of the war increasingly involves the vital interests of many other actors other than the U.S. and NATO forces currently there. This monograph, taken from SSI's conference with European and Russian scholars in 2010, provides a comprehensive analysis of the means and objectives of Russia's involvement in Central Asia. It also provides Russian perspectives concerning the other actors in Central Asia and how Moscow views the policy significance of those efforts....

April 4, 2011
Foreign Policy Centre

Abstract:

This publication, based on three previous Kazakhstan at a Crossroads reports, gives an overview of Kazakhstan’s political situation, economic development and international relations. It highlights restrictions on political activity that have helped lead to a one party parliament, restrictions on media freedom that overtly and covertly shut out dissenting voices, the presence of significant corruption amongst sections of the political elite which is being responded to in a way that suggests motives that may be politicised.

Kazakhstan at a Crossroads makes the case that despite Kazakhstan’s economic progress and relative stability there remain serious human rights and governance problems that should give the international community pause before granting it any further opportunities for international leadership. Any future deeper economic or political engagement with Kazakhstan needs to be conditional on clear improvements in human rights and non-compliance should lead to real penalties, rather than have transgressions brushed under the carpet as they were with the OSCE Chairmanship....

October 28, 2010
Central Eurasia Project // Open Society Foundations // Soros Foundation Network

Abstract:

This briefing paper tracks the evolution of, and trends in, U.S. military and police aid to Central Asian countries pre- and post-9/11. In particular, it seeks to identify assistance associated with agreements with countries in the region to provide base and transit access to United States and allied militaries for the war in Afghanistan. While the United States does not pay “rent” for military bases, this report includes a primer on the relevant U.S. military aid programs (both traditional and new) that are used as compensation for basing and other access rights, including for Central Asian participation in the recently launched Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a land-based supply route for U.S. and allied forces that runs through Central Asia to Afghanistan. The U.S. government has no comprehensive budget for the assistance it provides to the police, militaries, and other Central Asian security forces; however, in the fullest accounting available to date, this report documents that the United States provided at least $145 million in military aid through 19 different budgets and programs in one year (fiscal year 2007). This amount is nearly half of the total of $329 million that the U.S. government gave to Central Asian governments in 2007, and it is six times the amount the U.S. government spent to promote rule of law, democratic governance, and respect for fundamental human rights in that same year....

October 20, 2010
The Century Foundation

Abstract:

Afghanistan’s neighbors that garner the most attention in policy debates about resolving its conflicts are Iran and Pakistan. The five post-Soviet states to Afghanistan’s north—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—also will have a hand in determining Afghanistan’s future, though their relevance is often discounted and there is little understanding of exactly what their role might be. Joshua Foust’s paper explains how and why these bordering countries do not view the war in Afghanistan in the same terms as do the United States, Russia, Europe, or the Security Council collectively. In some cases, the interests of these Central Asian neighbors run counter to those of the more global players seeking to determine Afghanistan’s future. In this paper he explores:
* Transnational Threats. The Central Asian states face two major threats to the stability of their brittle regimes, which are exacerbated by uncertainty in Afghanistan: criminal networks (especially human and narcotics trafficking) and Islamic extremism.
* Regional Economic Development. The potential for economic gain, whether through cooperative resource extraction, international trade, or energy production, could be a vehicle for realizing broader engagement with Afghanistan by Central Asia’s countries.
* Contributions to a Regional Solution in Afghanistan. While they are currently preoccupied with internal issues, Foust sees considerable opportunity for increasing cooperation among countries in the region in an effort to aid the international community’s efforts in Afghanistan....

July 12, 2011
Central Asia Caucasus Institute // Silk Road Studies Program

Abstract:

2010 was a dramatic year in Kyrgyzstan. In April, a revolt unseated the country`s leader for the second time in five years. In the aftermath of this upheaval, deadly ethnic riots in June took the life of over 400 people in southern Kyrgyzstan and led to the displacement of more than 100,000. After these events, parliamentary elections were held in October bringing hope for sta-bility and peaceful developments.

Those elections inspired observers to talk about a historical watershed of de-mocratic politics and a parliamentary system in Central Asia. Yet in order to understand the challenges and opportunities ahead and assess whether a fresh start for Kyrgyzstan is likely, it is not sufficient to look at elections, or in-deed the formal structure of government. It is necessary to go beyond these to seek an understanding of how Kyrgyzstan‟s politics actually have come to work since independence.

This study aspires to do exactly that....

July 8, 2011
Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior

Abstract:

In Kyrgyzstan the risk of instability remains. The country practices genuine elections and power-sharing, is open to international engagement, and promotes basic rights such as free speech. In 2010 Kyrgyzstan adopted a new Constitution, moving away from a super-presidential model to a system in which the president and the parliament share power more equally. Its economic performance is positive: the IMF assessed that the economy recovered quickly due to improved security and political stability, better-than-expected agricultural performance and a timely fiscal stimulus. However, it is the only ex-Soviet state to undergo two turbulent regime changes – the so called ‘Tulip-1’and ‘Tulip-2’ revolutions of 2005 and 2010 – and is affected by a strong regional split between the North and the South, one of the factors behind both ‘revolutions’. This makes Kyrgyzstan a country of paradoxes where it mixes positive developments with severe threats to its stability....

June 8, 2011
Human Rights Watch

Abstract:

This report concludes that criminal investigations into the 2010 violence have been marred by widespread use of arbitrary arrests and ill-treatment, including torture. Prosecutorial authorities have refused to investigate allegations of torture, and courts have relied heavily on confessions allegedly extracted under torture to sentence defendants to long prison sentences after court hearings in which threats and other forms of intimidation and, in some cases, physical attacks against defendants and their lawyers went unchallenged. The profoundly flawed investigations and trials, mainly affecting the ethnic Uzbek minority, undermine efforts to promote reconciliation and fuel tensions that might one day lead to renewed violence....

June 8, 2011
Amnesty International

Abstract:

Failure to deliver justice for the killing, rape and torture of civilians could lead to further clashes, Amnesty International warned ahead of the first anniversary of the violence that shook southern parts of Kyrgyzstan.

Four days of violent clashes between ethnic Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbeks in the Osh and Jalal-Abad areas on 10-14 June 2010 left about 470 people dead, thousands injured and hundreds of thousands displaced.

According to local observers, 74 per cent of those killed were Uzbek and 25 per cent Kyrgyz.

One year on, Amnesty International's briefing, Still waiting for justice, calls on the Kyrgyzstani authorities to establish the truth about what happened and provide justice for the thousands of victims and their families.

"The failure to bring to justice those behind the violence could provide fertile soil for the seeds of future turmoil and future human rights violations," said Nicola Duckworth, Amnesty International's Europe and Central Asia Programme Director.

"While the authorities have made some positive steps, such as providing compensation for the victims and promising to review allegations of torture, they still have much to do to address the litany of human rights violations that occurred during and after the violence and restore the confidence of all ethnic groups in Kyrgyzstan that they have an equal stake in the country’s future.”

About 20 cases of rape and other sexual violence have been documented during the violence but human rights monitors believe the real number to be much higher. Many of the victims were Uzbek women and girls and the perpetrators mostly Kyrgyz men....

May 12, 2011
Minority Rights Group International

Abstract:

The popular uprisings that swept the Arab world in early 2011 have been compared by some commentators to the fall of the Berlin Wall. In an exhilarating push for democratic change, long-term rulers have been ousted and others challenged seriously for the first time. But despite what has been achieved, many voices from the region have urged caution: even in those countries which have seen the greatest changes, the internal security apparatus and other structures of repression have remained largely intact and the struggle for real constitutional reform continues. The ability of a state to undergo political change without violence is widely considered a hallmark of a mature democracy (although the record shows that democracies, even very old ones, are hardly immune from violent conflict). Which combination of circumstances, then, makes the onset of mass killing more likely and which conditions lower the risk of a state, even an autocratic one, descending to bloody violence? It is to help answer such questions that Minority Rights Group International has developed the Peoples under Threat index. Since 2005 Peoples under Threat has pioneered the use of statistical analysis to identify situations around the world where communities are most at risk of mass killing. On numerous occasions since the index was first developed, countries that have risen sharply up the table have later proved to be the scene of mass human rights violations....

June 7, 2011
Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces

Abstract:

The Examples from the Ground are concrete illustrations of ways in which a gender perspective has been integrated in different security sector institutions around the world. They range from measures to counter human trafficking in Kosovo, to women’s organisations’ involvement with security institutions in Nepal, to female parliamentarians’ contribution to post-conflict reconstruction in Rwanda. These examples can help policymakers, trainers and educators better understand and demonstrate the linkages between gender and SSR.

The examples are organised around the following nine themes, for which a short introduction is provided:

• Police Reform and Gender
• Defence Reform and Gender
• Justice Reform and Gender
• Penal Reform and Gender
• Border Management and Gender
• Parliamentary Oversight of the Security Sector and Gender
• National Security Policy-Making and Gender
• Civil Society Oversight of the Security Sector and Gender
• SSR Assessment, Monitoring and Evaluation and Gender

Individual examples can also be downloaded individually, in English or in French, at:
http://gssrtraining.ch/index.php?option=com_content&view;=article&id;=4&Itemid;=131⟨=en...

May 24, 2011
International Crisis Group

Abstract:

Tajikistan, by most measures Central Asia’s poorest and most vulnerable state, is now facing yet another major problem: the growing security threat from both local and external insurgencies. After his security forces failed to bring warlords and a small group of young insurgents to heel in the eastern region of Rasht in 2010-2011, President Emomali Rakhmon did a deal to bring a temporary peace to the area. But he may soon face a tougher challenge from the resurgent Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a group with a vision of an Islamist caliphate that is fighting in Afghanistan alongside the Taliban.

That conflict is moving closer to the 1,400km Afghan-Tajik border. Many anti-government guerrillas operating in northern Afghanistan are of Central Asian origin and are largely affiliated with the IMU, which seems to be focusing on its fight against the government in Kabul but may at some stage turn its attention northwards. Tajikistan has almost no capacity to tackle a dedicated insurgent force; its efforts to quell problems in Rasht have left its only well-trained counter-insurgency unit with just over 30 fighters.

The secular, Soviet-trained leadership that emerged from the civil war now finds itself dealing with a society increasingly drawn to observant Islam. The regime’s response to this is as inept as its efforts to bring Rasht to heel.

Tajikistan is so vulnerable that a small, localised problem could quickly spiral into a threat to the regime’s existence....

April 20, 2011
Strategic Studies Institute // United States Army War College

Abstract:

The war in Afghanistan has added considerably to the strategic significance of Central Asia due to its proximity to the conflict. Moreover, the continuation of the war increasingly involves the vital interests of many other actors other than the U.S. and NATO forces currently there. This monograph, taken from SSI's conference with European and Russian scholars in 2010, provides a comprehensive analysis of the means and objectives of Russia's involvement in Central Asia. It also provides Russian perspectives concerning the other actors in Central Asia and how Moscow views the policy significance of those efforts....

March 28, 2011
Institut für Strategie- Politik- Sicherheits- und Wirtschaftsberatung

Abstract:

China’s rise on the international stage has been accompanied by an increase in its military’s presence. Beijing’s expanding ambition is prompting calls on the country’s leaders to be more proactive in protecting its national interests. These calls by Chinese analysts have raised concerns about the military’s capability to mobilize troops to defend the country’s vast borders.

March 18, 2011
United Nations Mine Action Service // United Nations Development Programme // United Nations Children’s Fund

Abstract:

The Portfolio of Mine Action Projects is a resource tool and reference document for donors, policy-makers, advocates, and national and international mine action implementers. The country and territory-specific proposals in the portfolio reflect strategic responses developed in the field to address all aspects of the problem of landmines and explosive remnants of war (ERW). This country and territory-based approach aims to present as comprehensive a picture as possible of the full range of mine action needs in particular countries and thematic issues related to mine action. The portfolio ideally reflects projects developed by mine- and ERW-affected countries and territories based on their priorities and strategies; the approaches are endorsed by national authorities. The portfolio does not automatically entail full-scale direct mine action assistance by the United Nations, but is in essence a tool for collaborative resource mobilization, coordination and planning of mine action activities involving partners and stakeholders. A country portfolio coordinator (CPC) leads each country portfolio team and coordinates the submission of proposals to the portfolio’s headquarters team. While the majority of the CPCs are UN officials, this role is increasingly being assumed by national authorities. The country portfolio teams include representatives from national and local authorities, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), the United Nations and the private sector. Locally based donor representatives are invited to attend preparation meetings. Each portfolio chapter contains a synopsis of the scope of the landmine and ERW problem, a description of how mine action is coordinated, and a snapshot of local mine action strategies. Many of the strategies complement or are integrated into broader development and humanitarian frameworks such as national development plans, the UN development assistance frameworks and national poverty reduction plans. This 14th edition of the annual Portfolio of Mine Action Projects features overviews and project outlines for 29 countries, territories or missions affected by landmines and explosive remnants of war. There are 238 projects in the 2011 portfolio. Africa accounts for the largest number: 92....

April 20, 2011
Strategic Studies Institute // United States Army War College

Abstract:

The war in Afghanistan has added considerably to the strategic significance of Central Asia due to its proximity to the conflict. Moreover, the continuation of the war increasingly involves the vital interests of many other actors other than the U.S. and NATO forces currently there. This monograph, taken from SSI's conference with European and Russian scholars in 2010, provides a comprehensive analysis of the means and objectives of Russia's involvement in Central Asia. It also provides Russian perspectives concerning the other actors in Central Asia and how Moscow views the policy significance of those efforts....

October 28, 2010
Central Eurasia Project // Open Society Foundations // Soros Foundation Network

Abstract:

This briefing paper tracks the evolution of, and trends in, U.S. military and police aid to Central Asian countries pre- and post-9/11. In particular, it seeks to identify assistance associated with agreements with countries in the region to provide base and transit access to United States and allied militaries for the war in Afghanistan. While the United States does not pay “rent” for military bases, this report includes a primer on the relevant U.S. military aid programs (both traditional and new) that are used as compensation for basing and other access rights, including for Central Asian participation in the recently launched Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a land-based supply route for U.S. and allied forces that runs through Central Asia to Afghanistan. The U.S. government has no comprehensive budget for the assistance it provides to the police, militaries, and other Central Asian security forces; however, in the fullest accounting available to date, this report documents that the United States provided at least $145 million in military aid through 19 different budgets and programs in one year (fiscal year 2007). This amount is nearly half of the total of $329 million that the U.S. government gave to Central Asian governments in 2007, and it is six times the amount the U.S. government spent to promote rule of law, democratic governance, and respect for fundamental human rights in that same year....

October 20, 2010
The Century Foundation

Abstract:

Afghanistan’s neighbors that garner the most attention in policy debates about resolving its conflicts are Iran and Pakistan. The five post-Soviet states to Afghanistan’s north—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—also will have a hand in determining Afghanistan’s future, though their relevance is often discounted and there is little understanding of exactly what their role might be. Joshua Foust’s paper explains how and why these bordering countries do not view the war in Afghanistan in the same terms as do the United States, Russia, Europe, or the Security Council collectively. In some cases, the interests of these Central Asian neighbors run counter to those of the more global players seeking to determine Afghanistan’s future. In this paper he explores:
* Transnational Threats. The Central Asian states face two major threats to the stability of their brittle regimes, which are exacerbated by uncertainty in Afghanistan: criminal networks (especially human and narcotics trafficking) and Islamic extremism.
* Regional Economic Development. The potential for economic gain, whether through cooperative resource extraction, international trade, or energy production, could be a vehicle for realizing broader engagement with Afghanistan by Central Asia’s countries.
* Contributions to a Regional Solution in Afghanistan. While they are currently preoccupied with internal issues, Foust sees considerable opportunity for increasing cooperation among countries in the region in an effort to aid the international community’s efforts in Afghanistan....

June 29, 2010
Institut für Strategie- Politik- Sicherheits- und Wirtschaftsberatung

Abstract:

With the US-led West getting about to withdraw from Afghanistan - the real upsurge for the crucial region historically known as the Between and Betwixt of Empires is about to begin in earnest. This will be a confluence - a perfect storm - of the revival and resurrection of historic mega-trends under contemporary conditions. Most important are the revival of the original Russian-Chinese “Great Game”. For almost three centuries, Central Asia was the preeminent zone of confrontation between China’s Manchu Dynasty (1644-1912) and Russia’s Romanov Dynasty (1613-1917). Now, the Heart of Asia has once again become the zone Between and Betwixt Empires in more than mere geopolitical terms. However, what makes the current situation uniquely explosive and dangerous is the surge of the Jihadist movement - emboldened by its enduring of the US/ISAF war in Afghanistan and Pakistan - as a most vibrant and violent force that is setting the Heart of Asia aflame. The Jihadist movement is facilitating the Chinese ascent as a global hegemon in return for a Chinese umbrella against US and Western retaliation. This confluence of historic and grand strategic mega-trends constitutes not only a threat to the quintessential vital interests of Russia - but to the well-being of the entire industrialized North....

April 23, 2010
openDemocracy

Abstract:

Kyrgyzstan’s violence underscores the instability of those former Soviet governments which are burdened by authoritarian and corrupt rule. To varying degrees, every Central Asian country faces serious threats at home and from the war in neighboring Afghanistan. They need help. The West and Russia should act, including by engaging the underutilized Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Central Asia -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan -- is insecure. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have ethnic kin fighting in Afghanistan who might target repressive rulers at home. The extremist Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is becoming more threatening. The recent cessation of U.S. support for eradicating poppy fields in Afghanistan will spur narcotics trafficking via Central Asia. Economic challenges and rampant corruption undermine security. The area is rich in oil and gas mainly in the Caspian region and America and its companies have an important stake in the development of its huge oil reserves and diversification of world oil supplies. That said, high unemployment and dashed expectations in impoverished Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan could provoke social explosions. Most people in Turkmenistan remain poor despite its huge natural gas reserves. In Kazakhstan oil development raises many but not all living standards. A major Central Asia security initiative – made more urgent by developments in Kyrgyzstan – could offer content worthy of a summit....

May 5, 2011
Afghanistan Analyst Network

Abstract:

The rise of the Taleban, the self-abandonment of the Afghan government and the effects of ISAF’s ‘capture-and-kill campaign’:

In this report Antonio Giustozzi and Christoph Reuter describe the rise of the Taleban in northern Afghanistan. They discuss their recruitment and shadow administration, the conduct of the Afghan government, the effects of ISAF’s ‘capture-and-kill campaign’ and how all of this together contributes to a very unstable status quo.

Until recently, the belief was widespread that the Greater North was immune from Taleban infiltration. The picture changed drastically in 2008 with attacks and roadside bombs and even large-scale ambushes involving dozens of fighters in 2009, and the argument that the Taleban could only attract Pashtuns became controversial. [...]

By early 2010, the Taleban had brought the northern half of Baghlan, several districts in the south and north of Kunduz, most of northern Takhar and parts of Faryab and Jowzjan under their military control or influence. The Taleban opened their ranks for non-Pashtuns. They emphasised a religious and ideological approach rather than an ethnic one and relied heavily on the clergy, which as an institution transcends ethnic divisions.[...]

According to the authors, the above indicates that the Taleban not only want to fight the Afghan government, but want to replace it. Moving north and establishing their shadow structures strengthened the Taleban’s claims to be the legitimate government of Afghanistan, a nation-wide movement, fighting for more than just a region or a particular ethnic group (the Pashtuns). [...]

The report was produced in the course of 2010 and reflects the situation in the Greater North as of the end of autumn 2010....

April 20, 2011
Strategic Studies Institute // United States Army War College

Abstract:

The war in Afghanistan has added considerably to the strategic significance of Central Asia due to its proximity to the conflict. Moreover, the continuation of the war increasingly involves the vital interests of many other actors other than the U.S. and NATO forces currently there. This monograph, taken from SSI's conference with European and Russian scholars in 2010, provides a comprehensive analysis of the means and objectives of Russia's involvement in Central Asia. It also provides Russian perspectives concerning the other actors in Central Asia and how Moscow views the policy significance of those efforts....

March 21, 2011
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

Abstract:

The Central Asia emergency began on 10 June 2010, when violence broke out in the city of Osh and subsequently spread to Jalalabad in southern Kyrgyzstan. Clashes between ethnic Uzbeks and ethnic Kyrgyz left hundreds of people dead and up to 400,000 displaced, almost 20 per cent of the population of Osh and Jalalabad. Thousands more were affected but not displaced by the violence.

This document provides a report of a lessons-learned workshop on the UNHCR emergency operation in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan between June and November 2010. The workshop was held in Istanbul, Turkey, on 6-7 December 2010, and convened by UNHCR’s Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific (RBAP) and Regional Office for Central Asia (ROCA)....

March 10, 2011
Congressional Research Service

Abstract:

This report collects statistics from a variety of sources on casualties sustained during Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), which began on October 7, 2001, and is ongoing. OEF actions take place primarily in Afghanistan; however, OEF casualties also includes American casualties in Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Guantanamo Bay (Cuba), Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Jordan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, the Philippines, Seychelles, Sudan, Tajikistan, Turkey, and Yemen. Casualty data of U.S. military forces are compiled by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), as tallied from the agency's press releases. Also included are statistics on those wounded but not killed.

Because the estimates of Afghan casualties contained in this report are based on varying time periods and have been created using different methodologies, readers should exercise caution when using them and should look to them as guideposts rather than as statements of fact. This report will be updated as needed....

January 13, 2011
German Institute of Global and Area Studies

Abstract:

Although approximately 5,000 US soldiers were transferred into Northern Afghanistan in the first half of 2010 and there have been initial military successes, the intensity of the insurgency in the Kunduz region has not diminished. Instead, there has been a continuing escalation of violence there in recent months. The unabated strength of the insurgency is based primarily on highly diversified leadership and logistical structures. The insurgency in the northeast consists of several groups, which follow different strategic objectives, but maintain close tactical cooperation. The main groups are the Afghan Taliban, the Islamic Party of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Additional groups include the Haqqani Network and al-Qaeda. It is important to assemble precise information about the ideological and strategic characteristics of these groups as only then can effective military action be taken and only then can decisions be made about which groups must be approached as negotiation partners....